ON THE RECORDSealed
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 SOL this week
I predict OpenAI will publicly release a model called GPT-5.6 SOL, or a clearly equivalent GPT-5.6-series model branded as SOL, by the end of this week.
Your forecast — on the record
65%it happens
Exact conditions — sealed & immutable
- Counts as met if OpenAI publishes an official announcement, model card, API documentation, release notes, or ChatGPT model picker entry for GPT-5.6 SOL or a clearly equivalent GPT-5.6 SOL-branded model.
- The release must be public or broadly available to paying users, developers, or ChatGPT users. A closed private test, rumor, third-party leak, or employee hint does not count.
- A model with unrelated naming does not count unless OpenAI explicitly presents it as the GPT-5.6 SOL release.
- Deadline is Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 23:59 Pacific Time, which is Monday, July 6, 2026 at 06:59 UTC.
- If OpenAI announces before the deadline but access rolls out later, it counts only if official release materials say the model is released or rolling out, not merely planned.
sealed 2026-07-01sha-256 of the sealed criteria — any edit would break it
Forecasters — 6 on the record
| Forecaster | Probability | Why |
|---|---|---|
| @martins | 55% | |
| @vekt0r | 38% | “SOL” smells like a codename leak — leaks run early on hype, late on ship dates. |
| @martanoble | 44% | OpenAI ships when it’s real and teases when it’s not. This week reads like a teaser week. |
| @pxlsmith | 60% | |
| @quietbear | 30% | Announced ≠ released. Sealed NO. |
| @arvids | 52% |
No wagers, no odds, no cash value — accuracy only.
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